HMMDecoder can also be used to find the propensity of customer churn, given the actions or transactions of a customer in a bank. The input table, churn_data, contains different transactions (column action) of a customer (column id). The order of transactions is shown in the column path_id. Assume that the trained tables with their state probabilities are readily available, as shown in the four tables that follow churn_data, and that the states correspond to T (True – customer is likely to churn) or F (False – customer is unlikely to churn).
model | action | path_id | path_max | id | product |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | CALL_COMPLAINT | 1 | 4 | 1 | BROKERAGE |
1 | CALL_COMPLAINT | 2 | 4 | 1 | BROKERAGE |
1 | FEE_REVERSAL | 3 | 4 | 1 | BROKERAGE |
1 | BALANCE_TRANSFER | 4 | 4 | 1 | BROKERAGE |
1 | ACCOUNT_BOOKED_ONLINE | 1 | 4 | 2 | CREDITCARD |
1 | FEE_REVERSAL | 2 | 4 | 2 | CREDITCARD |
1 | LINK_EXTERNAL_ACCOUNT | 3 | 4 | 2 | CREDITCARD |
1 | BALANCE_TRANSFER | 4 | 4 | 2 | CREDITCARD |
1 | STARTS_APPLICATION | 1 | 5 | 3 | CD |
1 | MORTGAGE_CALC | 2 | 5 | 3 | CD |
1 | COMPARE | 3 | 5 | 3 | CD |
1 | BROWSE | 4 | 5 | 3 | CD |
1 | COMPLETE_APPLICATION | 5 | 5 | 3 | CD |
The following is a table of initial states:
model | tag | probability |
---|---|---|
1 | F | 0.909 |
1 | T | 0.091 |
The following is a table of state transitions:
model | from_tag | to_tag | probability |
---|---|---|---|
1 | F | F | 1 |
1 | F | T | 0 |
1 | T | F | 0 |
1 | T | T | 1 |
The following is a table of emissions:
model | state | observed | probability |
---|---|---|---|
1 | F | ACCOUNT_BOOKED_OFFLINE | 0.005 |
1 | F | ACCOUNT_BOOKED_ONLINE | 0.028 |
1 | F | ADD_DIRECT_DEPOSIT | 0.001 |
1 | F | BALANCE_TRANSFER | 0 |
1 | F | BROWSE | 0.545 |
1 | F | CALL_COMPLAINT | 0 |
1 | F | CLICK | 0.003 |
1 | F | COMPARE | 0.113 |
1 | F | COMPLETE_APPLICATION | 0.06 |
1 | F | ENROLL_AUTO_SAVINGS | 0.001 |
1 | F | FEE_REVERSAL | 0 |
1 | F | LINK_EXTERNAL_ACCOUNT | 0 |
1 | F | LOAN_CALC | 0.024 |
1 | F | MORTGAGE_CALC | 0.011 |
1 | F | OLB | 0.039 |
1 | F | REFERRAL | 0.003 |
1 | F | STARTS_APPLICATION | 0.167 |
1 | T | ACCOUNT_BOOKED_OFFLINE | 0.027 |
1 | T | ACCOUNT_BOOKED_ONLINE | 0.074 |
1 | T | ADD_DIRECT_DEPOSIT | 0 |
1 | T | BALANCE_TRANSFER | 0.238 |
1 | T | BROWSE | 0.016 |
1 | T | CALL_COMPLAINT | 0.233 |
1 | T | CLICK | 0 |
1 | T | COMPARE | 0.033 |
1 | T | COMPLETE_APPLICATION | 0.028 |
1 | T | ENROLL_AUTO_SAVINGS | 0 |
1 | T | FEE_REVERSAL | 0.221 |
1 | T | LINK_EXTERNAL_ACCOUNT | 0.106 |
1 | T | LOAN_CALC | 0.006 |
1 | T | MORTGAGE_CALC | 0.002 |
1 | T | OLB | 0.002 |
1 | T | REFERRAL | 0.001 |
1 | T | STARTS_APPLICATION | 0.013 |